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Zielkonflikte in der Geldpolitik
Dr. Stefan Schüder
Band 3 | Zielkonflikte in der Geldpolitik
Der Einfluss von Zentralbanken auf Finanzmärkte und die Realwirtschaft
Zentralbanken besitzen in Volkswirtschaften eine wesentliche Stellung, da sie mit geldpolitischen Entscheidungen Einfluss auf fundamentale volkswirtschaftliche Größen wie Preisniveau, Zinssätze und Wechselkurse nehmen. Aufgrund der herausragenden Stellung der Zentralbanken und der Entwicklungen im Verlauf der Finanzkrise seit 2007 stellt sich die Frage, inwiefern geldpolitische Eingriffe Stabilität schaffen können und das Ausmaß von Krisen vermindern sollten. Die vorliegende Arbeit bietet eine Antwort auf Basis eines makroökonomischen Portfoliomodells, in dem die wechselseitigen Abhängigkeiten von Finanzmärkten und Realwirtschaft berücksichtigt sind. Es werden die Zielkonflikte geldpolitischer Eingriffe anhand von wechselkursstabilisierenden Maßnahmen und expansiver Geldpolitik in Krisenzeiten, wie Staatsanleihenankäufe und Kreditmengenausweitungen, diskutiert. Das Modell zeigt erstmals mikroökonomisch fundiert, dass derartige Zentralbankeingriffe einen langfristigen Einfluss auf die Realwirtschaft besitzen. Sie stabilisieren die inländische Realproduktion, indem sie jedoch ökonomisch angemessene Veränderungen im inländischen Realkapitalbestand auf Kosten des Auslandes verhindern. Daraus resultiert eine ineffiziente internationale Verteilung von Produktionsmitteln, die mit Finanzmarktvolatilität und einer Anhäufung von Risikopositionen in der Zentralbankbilanz einhergeht. Diese Auswirkungen sind im Falle von expansiver Geldpolitik zusätzlich mit Güterpreissteigerungen und Währungsabwertung verbunden. Insgesamt zeigen die Ergebnisse, dass wechselkursstabilisierende Maßnahmen und expansive Geldpolitik in Krisenzeiten die Gefahr einer dauerhaft negativen Beeinflussung der Weltwohlfahrt bergen.
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